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| Program > Proof, Prediction and Mathematics in Ancient and Islamic Science |
| Programme > Preuve, prédiction et mathématiques dans les sciences antiques et islamiques |
| Daryn
Lehoux
(University of
King's College) Predictions in Ancient Astronomy and Astrology |
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In looking at the mechanisms of astrological prediction, we see that by
relying on authoritative texts and instruments, the ancient astrologer
was able to forecast the fates of individuals, as well as events such as
meteorological phenomena and crop yields. This tradition finds its
origins in several different omen traditions, common throughout the
ancient Mediterranean and Near East, where different kinds of fortuitous
events (including astronomical events such as eclipses) frequently had
ominous significance. By the fifth century B.C., however, astronomy
distinguished itself from the other omen traditions by developing
mathematical methods for predicting the events (e.g., eclipses) from
which its omens were derived. But the very adoption of these predictive
methods served to canonize the timing and character of the astronomical
events. That is: instead of being, strictly speaking, predictive, the
texts and tools of early mathematical astronomy were normative. This
meant that in making the astronomical part of their predictions, the
astronomer, in spite of his rhetoric to the contrary, is primarily
working from texts or instruments, rather than from observations in the
natural world.
History
of Science and Technology Programme |
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