RESEARCH

 

AREAS OF INTEREST:  Political Economy, Applied Microeconomics, Public Economics, Family Economics.

 

 

RESEARCH PAPERS:

 

·        Mobilization and Persuasion of Political Advertising [version April 2010]

A completely revised version entitled ‘Civic Duty and Political Advertising’ has been published in Economic Theory online DOI: 10.1007/s00199-011-0655-1

 

This paper proposes a model of informative political advertising that incorporates both mobilization and persuasion aspects of advertising. An uncertain-voter model of two-candidate political competition is proposed, where candidates have fixed symmetric ideological positions and unknown qualities and can use campaign spending, in the form of (positive) advertising, to inform voters about their qualities. By reducing or eliminating voters' uncertainty about who is the right candidate, political advertising can mobilize citizens as well as make them change opinion about which candidate to vote for. We characterize the level of informative political advertising chosen by candidates as well as conditions under which partial or full turnout emerges in equilibrium. Comparative static analysis allows us to evaluate the implications of different policies aiming at increasing levels of turnout. For example, we find that policies that increase voters' ex-ante propensity to vote, such as public vote-awareness policies or non-partisan get-out-the-vote movements, can lead to either an increase or a decrease in political advertising as well as in the probability that the candidate preferred by a majority of (all informed) citizens is elected.

            

 

·   Dynastic Accumulation of Wealth  (with Emmanuel Thibault)  [version June 2008]

   Additional material

Why do some dynasties maintain the fortune of their founders while others completely squander it in few generations? What are the causal mechanisms that underlie the intergenerational transmission of wealth? Is there a role for public policies aiming at improving long-run social mobility and wealth inequalities? To address these questions, we use a basic deterministic microfounded model based on two main ingredients: the “hunger for accumulation” and the “willingness to exert effort”. The interplay between these two elements allows our dynamic model (i) to generate a variety of wealth accumulation and effort choice dynamics (ii) to provide an explanation for some macroeconomic features of social mobility and class structure as well as for the existence and the demise of the rich bourgeoisie. Furthermore, we analyze the effect on wealth accumulation of inheritance taxation and extend our setting to variable wage opportunities and exogenous shocks. Our analysis points to the crucial role of our two key ingredients, rather than of initial wealth or transitory shocks to wealth, in generating the patterns of wealth accumulation within a family lineage.

 

 

·         Do Voters Vote Ideologically? (with Antonio Merlo)

      The Journal of Economic Theory, Vol 144, Issue 5, September 2009, Pages 1868-1894

 

In this paper we address the following question: To what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote “ideologically” (i.e., they always vote for the candidate who is ideologically “closest” to them) testable or falsifiable? We show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election, the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically is irrefutable, regardless of the number of candidates competing in the election. On the other hand, using data on how the same individuals vote in multiple elections, the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically is potentially falsifiable, and we provide general conditions under which the hypothesis can be tested.

 

 

·         A Structural Model of Turnout and Voting in Multiple Elections (with Antonio Merlo) [Working paper version, August 2007], the  revised version is published in The Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 9, Issue 2, April 2011, Pages 209-245

 

Understanding citizens' electoral behaviour (e.g., selective abstention and split-ticket voting), represents a fundamental step in the analysis of democratic institutions. In this paper, we assess the extent to which sincere voting can explain observed patterns of participation and voting in U.S. national elections. We propose a unified model of turnout and voting in presidential and congressional elections with heterogeneous voters. We estimate the model using individual-level data for eight presidential election years (1972-2000). Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, a non-negligible fraction of the American electorate does not vote sincerely, and only a relatively small fraction of observed split-ticket voting can be explained by sincere voting. Second, there is a systematic, positive relationship between information and turnout.

 

·        Policy Positions, Information Acquisition, and Turnout (Working paper version 2006)

     Final version published in The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, December 2006

 

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between policy preferences, information acquisition, and turnout. More specifically, we characterize the choice of acquiring political information and voting as a function of citizens’ policy preferences. We conduct comparative static analysis on the information technology and we investigate the impact of a perceived polarization on information acquisition and turnout decisions. We find that: (i) middle-of-the-road citizens are the most likely both to acquire political information and to abstain;  (ii) an increase in the effectiveness of information has a higher (positive) impact on turnout and  on the fraction  of the electorate who is informed than a comparable decrease in the cost of information;  (iii) following a perceived polarization both information and abstention increase.

 

 

·        A Dynamic Model of Voting (Working paper version 2004)

Final version published in the International Economic Review, May 2007

under the title ‘Candidate Valence: Evidence from US Presidential Elections’

 

We propose and estimate a dynamic spatial model of voting. Using individual-level data on voting decisions in two consecutive presidential elections, we identify and estimate (1) the distribution of voters' policy positions and (2) candidates' valence. In addition to providing an equilibrium interpretation of observed individual voting profiles and aggregate electoral outcomes, we use the estimated model to conduct counterfactual experiments to assess the impact of candidates' policy positions, valence, and voters' information on the outcomes of elections and to evaluate the performance of the electoral process.

 

 

Work in Progress

  Campaign Advertising and Career Concerns

• Fuzzy Political Campaign (with Ming Li)

• Decentralization, Media, and Candidate Selection

• Dynamic Allocation of Favors